Gambler's Fallacy: Final Hope: Sugar Blaze

This is it. Duchess is down to her final $1000. The mortgage, the car, everything has been sold to try and pull off a gambling miracle. It all comes down to Sugar Blaze.

Sugar Blaze will be put down tomorrow morning, and to be perfectly clear, Duchess will be too.

Want to learn more about the Gambler's fallacy, check out our activity pack for fun activities that help you spot the fallacy!

Gambler's Fallacy in a Nutshell

The Gambler's Fallacy is the belief that past random events affect future ones. They don't. Each event is independent. A coin that's landed heads ten times in a row is no more likely to land tails next time.

Duchess has lost seven bets in a row. Seven horses. Seven disappointments. But here's the thing - seven losses means the next one HAS to come in. She's due. The universe owes her this. Sugar Blaze is number eight, and number eight is going to fix everything. The mortgage. The car. All of it.

Sugar Blaze fell before the finish line.

The races were all independent events. Losing seven times doesn't make the eighth more likely to win - it just means Duchess has now lost eight times. The universe was not keeping score. It does not care about the mortgage. There is no "due."

There is only Sugar Blaze. And Sugar Blaze has let us all down.

See all 24 fallacies in What Are the Most Common Logical Fallacies?

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